Population change

Patterns of population change, components of change. North East, including local authority area data.

Population
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Introduction

The mid-2025 population estimates for LA (local authority)  areas in England and Wales were released on 29 July 2026, along with revised estimates for earlier years. Estimates for smaller geographies are due to be published  in December 2026 or January 2027.

Information about the methodology is included in the "about the data" section of this report. This highlights that the estimates represent the "usually-resident population". Although these statistics are estimates rather than counts, they are not published to the nearest 100 or 1,000, as is often the case for estimates. This ensures that percentages calculated from them are not based on rounded figures.


North East population latest

2.05m

latest North East MSA area population

Mid-2025 estimates,
MSA: Mayoral Strategic Authority.
Estimated unrounded population:
2,050,194

26%

lived in County Durham in 2025

Just over 16% in Northumberland,
almost 16% in Newcastle,
14% in Sunderland, 11% in North Tyneside,
10% in Gateshead, 7% in South Tyneside.

5th

highest population among England's 15 CA areas

All five had populations of
more than two million in 2025.
The other ten each had a
population below 1.62 million.

140,500

highest constituency population in 2024

Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West.
Lowest: South Shields (90,400).
Original definitions based on
number of electors, not population.


Recent North East population change

+123,100

North East 30 year population change

Mid-1995 to mid-2025.
a 6.4% increase.
65 plus: +128,300,
16 to 64: +46,400,
0 to 15: -51,600.

+4.4%

North East five year percentage population change

Mid-2020 to mid-2025, +87,200.
Similar rate of growth to England,
median rate of growth among 15
English MSA and CA areas.

+7.5%

Newcastle's five year percentage population change

Mid 2020 to mid 2025, NE highest.
Sunderland and Northumberland
(both with 4.9% growth) also had
rates of change above England's.

+38,800

Five year change in North East 65+ population

Mid-2020 to mid-2025.
16 to 24: +24,400,
35 to 49: +20,900,
other ages: +3,100.


Components of population change

+75,300

contribution of international migration to five year population change

North East, mid-2020 to mid-2025.
Net internal migration: +40,400,
natural change: -24,600,
(deaths subtracted from births).

+27,900

Newcastle's net international migration 2020-25

next highest: Sunderland (+18,100).
Highest net internal migration:
Northumberland (+19,900),
County Durham (+19,000).

-8,600

natural population change, latest five years, County Durham

Deaths subtracted from births.
Northumberland: -7,600.
In contrast to:
Newcastle: +2,000.

-8,900

North East births 2020-25 compared to 2015-20

A 9% decrease to 88,800
North East deaths were 6,200 higher:
A 6% increase to 113,400.


About the data

The annual ONS mid-year estimates of the resident population of England and Wales are usually published about 12 months after the date they refer to. Although these official statistics are unrounded, they are estimates rather than counts and are subject to a degree of uncertainty.

Currently, these estimates are based on the census, which takes place every ten years. The estimates are updated each year using a cohort component method. This uses the most reliable available data sources to estimate components of population change. The three major components are natural change, migration, and special populations.

As well as updating the ages in the previous dataset by a year, natural change estimates use recorded birth and death datasets to update the population. Estimates of internal migration (from other parts of the UK) and international migration rely on a range of administrative datasets, because the UK has no mandatory or comprehensive population registration. Estimates of changes in special populations such as armed forces and prisoners also use administrative data.

The estimates refer to the usually resident population, an internationally agreed definition. This includes only people who reside in a country for 12 months or more, with visitors and short-term migrants excluded. international migrants are usually resident if they intend to stay in England and Wales for more than 12 months.

For a few groups of people, the usual residence is defined using specific rules. For example, higher education students and schoolchildren studying away from home are considered usually resident at their term-time address, while members of the armed forces are usually resident at the address where they spend most of their time.

The mid-year estimates are accompanied by admin-based population estimates (ABPE) produced using a methodology that is being developed to replace the current one. The ABPEs are not yet official estimates.


Further information

Links to sources, other datasets and methodology.

Population homepage

The hub's population landing page. Includes links to other data reports about population.

Population estimates for England and Wales (source)

The annual statistical bulletin containing national and local mid-year estimates and related information.

Nomis website (source)

An official site that allows users to download local area statistics in customised datasets.

Population estimates methodology guide

The official ONS guide to how the annual estimates are compiled.