Population

The North East population in 2023

The estimated mid-2023 population of the North East CA area was just over two million, following an increase of 19,500 on the year. In percentage terms, this increase was similar to that of England excluding London (1.0%), the second successive year that the long-term trend of lower North East increases had been broken. The growth rates in each of the latest two years were both far higher than in any of the preceding 28 years. 

More than a quarter (26.4%) of North East residents lived in County Durham in 2023 while, in contrast, South Tyneside was home to only 7.4%. The North East had the median population among the nine northern and midland combined authority areas.

The North East's age profile reflects fluctuating birth rates of the past. The relatively large population of 55 to 64 year-olds in 2023 were born in a high birth rate period centred around the early 1960s. In contrast, the relatively small 45 to 49 and 0 to 9 populations partly result from low birth rates in the 1970s and in the most recent decade.

In 2023, the North East had an older age profile than England excluding London, with higher percentages of residents in the 55 plus age groups. Because of the presence of four universities, the North East also had a higher percentage of residents aged 16 to 24. Among local authority areas, Northumberland, North Tyneside and Newcastle had, respectively, the highest percentages of their populations in the 55+, 35 to 54, and 16 to 34 age groups. The percentage of children was highest in South Tyneside.

Recent population change

Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, Newcastle saw the biggest population growth in the North East, followed by County Durham (up by over 5,000 and 4,000 respectively). Conversely, South Tyneside and Gateshead saw the smallest increases (by around 670 and 1,200 respectively) on the year. In percentage terms, the highest growth also came in Newcastle. The increase of 1.8% was higher than nationally and than all Combined Authority areas in the north of England and midlands. 

The North East population growth in the latest year was highest amongst those aged 35 to 44 (up by over 8,100) and older residents (aged 65+, up by nearly 7,000). In contrast, the number of residents aged 45 to 54 decreased by almost 5,300 and the number of children (aged 0-15) saw the smallest increase (up by around 2,100), partly reflective of falling birth rates.

In the decade to 2023, the number of North East residents grew by over 74,500 (3.8%). The population increased for every five-year age group over 55, with the total in these age groups increasing by 96,200 (16%).  The population aged 0 to 54 decreased by 21,700.

Most notably, the population aged 75 and above increased by more than 34,500 (21%) over the past decade, which demonstrates the scale of growth of the ageing population. Northumberland and County Durham (largely rural local authority areas) saw the biggest percentage increases amongst this age group (by 35% and 25% respectively). Conversely, the number of residents aged 40 to 54 decreased by 48,900, with 68% of this decrease coming in the 45 to 49 age group, reflective of the falling birth rates in the late 1970s across the UK.

Within the North East, Newcastle had the largest population increase (27,600) in the latest decade, followed by County Durham (19,000). Gateshead was the only local authority area that saw a decrease (by around 1,200) and South Tyneside saw the smallest growth (by 1,700). In percentage terms, the North East increase of 3.8% was only just over half of the England excluding London growth rate (7.2%). Newcastle (9.7%) was the only North East area with a larger growth rate than nationally.

Components of population change

The high population growth in the North East in the latest two years (2021-23) has been driven by high net international migration.  Total net migration of this type in those two years was higher than over the previous eight. Recent increased net international migration was entirely a result of the high numbers of international arrivals, with annual international out-migration from the North East fairly constant across the last decade. 

In the 2016-21 period, net internal migration (from elsewhere in the UK) had been a larger factor in North East population increase. On the other hand, the North East has seen negative natural change, due to more deaths than births, in every year since 2016. The biggest decrease over the past decade, was in 2022-23 (down by nearly 6,000).

Over the most recent decade, at a local level, the largest contributors to population growth have been net international migration to Newcastle and net internal migration to County Durham and Northumberland. Natural change has been negative in all local authority areas except Newcastle. The latter has seen negative net internal migration over the decade, as have Sunderland and Gateshead. Interpreting the trends has been complicated by retrospective revisions to published population totals to reflect 2021's census results.

In the North East, the age group with largest net international migration over the past decade has been 16 to 24 year olds, although the percentage in other age groups has increased in the latest two years, with almost a quarter being children.  The 16 to 24 age group was also the largest contributor to net internal migration in the decade, but the next age group (25 to 34) had negative internal migration in each year. These patterns reflect the presence of four universities in the area. Outside of young adults, the largest contributors to recent net internal migration growth have been people aged 55 to 64 and children.

Policy implications

Examining the drivers behind population changes is essential in order to understand their impact on current and future socio-economic needs, challenges and opportunities across the region.

As the population increases, so does the need to build more homes. However, as the population also increasingly ages, there are wider implications emerging in relation to housing and infrastructure, due to the increased need to accommodate the needs of older residents and make services more accessible. 

Additionally, the significant increase observed amongst the 55-64 age group over the past ten years creates additional policy implications related to the labour market and the wider economy, due to an anticipated large number of retirements in the next decade.

At the same time, the trends show that older residents are increasingly concentrated in NECA’s mainly rural local authority areas. This trend, alongside the slower population increases of younger age groups in these areas highlight the increased need for retaining and attracting more young people in rural areas, to support their economic growth and vitality. 

On the other hand, the growing international migration inflows, primarily driven by younger people may be partly reflective of the growing international student population, increasing the demand for student accommodation stock. However, the extent of this trend differs across the North East CA local authority areas and is most prominent in areas with university presence. Also, considering that fluctuating nature of this trend, there is uncertainty over its future trajectory and how it will evolve in the long term. 
 

About the data

The Office for National Statistics provide the mid-year population estimates for England and Wales. Estimates are produced by updating a census base using a standard demographic method, known as the cohort component method. They cover the usually resident population.

The previous year's resident population, by single year of age, is aged by one year. Then flows are applied to cover births, deaths, immigration, emigration, and people entering and leaving "special populations", like people in prisons or the armed forces. Regional and local populations also include flows of migration from and to other parts of the UK.

The population statistics are estimates rather than counts and are subject to a degree of uncertainty. Statistical errors can accumulate over time and population estimates for the years immediately following a census year tend to be more accurate than those immediately prior to a census year. The latest release includes estimates for the 2012-2020 period that have been revised to take account of Census data.

The latest (mid-2003) population estimates include further backgound information, in addition to downloadable data tables. Bespoke population statistics can be downloaded from the ONS nomis website.