Population projections provide estimates of potential future population size and structure based on assumed levels of future fertility, mortality and migration from a base year where population totals and trends are known. The latest local projections are 2018-based and provide projections for each year to 2043.
Population projections by age
In the North East Combined Authority (CA) area, between 2018 and 2028:
- The total population is projected to increase by almost 54,400
- the population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 76,200
- the working-age (16 to 64) population is projected to decrease by 10,300
- the number of under-16s is projected to decrease by almost 11,600
- the 45 to 54 age group is projected to have the largest decrease
- the 75 plus age group is projected to have the largest increase.
Over a longer period, in the 25 years to 2043 in the North East:
- The total population is projected to increase by almost 100,000
- the population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by over 133,000
- the working-age (16 to 64) population is projected to decrease by 21,000
- the number of under-16s is projected to decrease by almost 13,000
- the 45 to 54 and 55 to 64 age groups are projected to have the largest decreases
- the 75 plus age group is projected to have the largest increase.
Local authority level population projections
In the 25 years to 2043:
- The projected population increase for County Durham represents over a third of the North East's projected increase
- the projected increases in North Tyneside and Northumberland each represent about a fifth
- the projected increase in Newcastle represents about 15%
- the combined projected increases in Gateshead, South Tyneside and Sunderland only represent about 9%, with Sunderland's population projected to decrease
- the largest percentage projected increase is in North Tyneside (over 10%)
- no other North East local authority area is projected to have an increase of 7% or higher.