Population projections provide estimates of potential future population size and structure based on assumed levels of future fertility, mortality and migration from a base year where population totals and trends are known. The latest local projections are 2018-based and provide projections for each year to 2043.
Population projections by age In the North East Combined Authority (CA) area, between 2018 and 2028: - The total population is projected to increase by almost 54,400
- the population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 76,200
- the working-age (16 to 64) population is projected to decrease by 10,300
- the number of under-16s is projected to decrease by almost 11,600
- the 45 to 54 age group is projected to have the largest decrease
- the 75 plus age group is projected to have the largest increase.
Over a longer period, in the 25 years to 2043 in the North East: - The total population is projected to increase by almost 100,000
- the population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by over 133,000
- the working-age (16 to 64) population is projected to decrease by 21,000
- the number of under-16s is projected to decrease by almost 13,000
- the 45 to 54 and 55 to 64 age groups are projected to have the largest decreases
- the 75 plus age group is projected to have the largest increase.
Projected population changes, 2018-43 by age group, North EastSource: Population projections - local authority based by single year of age (ONS via Nomis); latest release (2018-based): 24 Mar 2020; next release (2021-based): Apr 2024 Data information: Projections of potential future population size and structure from 2018 onwards. Based on assumed levels of future fertility, mortality and migration.
Local authority level population estimates for 2018 are likely to be revised in the light of data from the 2021 Census. Therefore, the assumptions behind these projections may be based on inaccurate data. The next release will use assumptions based on the latest census data.
Read MoreProjected population changes, 2018-43 by five-year period and age group, North EastSource: Population projections - local authority based by single year of age (ONS via Nomis); latest release (2018-based): 24 Mar 2020; next release (2021-based): Apr 2024 Data information: Projections of potential future population size and structure from 2018 onwards. Based on assumed levels of future fertility, mortality and migration.
Local authority level population estimates for 2018 are likely to be revised in the light of data from the 2021 Census. Therefore, the assumptions behind these projections may be based on inaccurate data. The next release will use assumptions based on the latest census data.
Read MoreProjected population changes (%), 2018-43 by age group, North East, EnglandSource: Population projections - local authority based by single year of age (ONS via Nomis); latest release (2018-based): 24 Mar 2020; next release (2021-based): Apr 2024 Data information: Projections of potential future population size and structure from 2018 onwards. Based on assumed levels of future fertility, mortality and migration.
Local authority level population estimates for 2018 are likely to be revised in the light of data from the 2021 Census. Therefore, the assumptions behind these projections may be based on inaccurate data. The next release will use assumptions based on the latest census data.
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Local authority level population projections In the 25 years to 2043: - The projected population increase for County Durham represents over a third of the North East's projected increase
- the projected increases in North Tyneside and Northumberland each represent about a fifth
- the projected increase in Newcastle represents about 15%
- the combined projected increases in Gateshead, South Tyneside and Sunderland only represent about 9%, with Sunderland's population projected to decrease
- the largest percentage projected increase is in North Tyneside (over 10%)
- no other North East local authority area is projected to have an increase of 7% or higher.
Projected population changes, 2018-28, North East local authority areasSource: Population projections - local authority based by single year of age (ONS via Nomis); latest release (2018-based): 24 Mar 2020; next release (2021-based): Apr 2024 Data information: Projections of potential future population size and structure from 2018 onwards. Based on assumed levels of future fertility, mortality and migration.
Local authority level population estimates for 2018 are likely to be revised in the light of data from the 2021 Census. Therefore, the assumptions behind these projections may be based on inaccurate data. The next release will use assumptions based on the latest census data.
Read MoreProjected population changes, 2018-43, North East local authority areasSource: Population projections - local authority based by single year of age (ONS via Nomis); latest release (2018-based): 24 Mar 2020; next release (2021-based): Apr 2024 Data information: Projections of potential future population size and structure from 2018 onwards. Based on assumed levels of future fertility, mortality and migration.
Local authority level population estimates for 2018 are likely to be revised in the light of data from the 2021 Census. Therefore, the assumptions behind these projections may be based on inaccurate data. The next release will use assumptions based on the latest census data.
Read MoreProjected population changes (%), 2018-43, North East local authority areasSource: Population projections - local authority based by single year of age (ONS via Nomis);
latest release (2018-based): 24 Mar 2020; next release (2021-based): Apr 2024 Data information: Projections of potential future population size and structure from 2018 onwards. Based on assumed levels of future fertility, mortality and migration.
Local authority level population estimates for 2018 are likely to be revised in the light of data from the 2021 Census. Therefore, the assumptions behind these projections may be based on inaccurate data. The next release will use assumptions based on the latest census data.
Read More
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