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Population projections

Estimates of the future size and structure of the North East population

Population and health
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Population projections provide estimates of potential future population size and structure based on assumed levels of future fertility, mortality and migration from a base year where population totals and trends are known. The latest local projections are 2018-based and provide projections for each year to 2043.


Population projections by age

In the North East Combined Authority (CA) area, between 2018 and 2028:

  • The total population is projected to increase by almost 54,400
  • the population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 76,200
  • the working-age (16 to 64) population is projected to decrease by 10,300
  • the number of under-16s is projected to decrease by almost 11,600
  • the 45 to 54 age group is projected to have the largest decrease
  • the 75 plus age group is projected to have the largest increase.

Over a longer period, in the 25 years to 2043 in the North East:

  • The total population is projected to increase by almost 100,000
  • the population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by over 133,000
  • the working-age (16 to 64) population is projected to decrease by 21,000
  • the number of under-16s is projected to decrease by almost 13,000
  • the 45 to 54 and 55 to 64 age groups are projected to have the largest decreases
  • the 75 plus age group is projected to have the largest increase.

Local authority level population projections

In the 25 years to 2043:

  • The projected population increase for County Durham represents over a third of the North East's projected increase
  • the projected increases in North Tyneside and Northumberland each represent about a fifth
  • the projected increase in Newcastle represents about 15%
  • the combined projected increases in Gateshead, South Tyneside and Sunderland only represent about 9%, with Sunderland's population projected to decrease
  • the largest percentage projected increase is in North Tyneside (over 10%)
  • no other North East local authority area is projected to have an increase of 7% or higher.