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Population projections

Estimates of the future size and structure of the North East population

Population
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Population projections estimate potential future population size and structure based on assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration, using a base year in which population levels and trends are known. The latest local projections are 2022‑based and produce annual projections for each year up to 2047. This report focuses on the 25-year change, but we can also look at smaller changes, such as 10 years..

Population projections by age

Over the next decade, between 2022 and 2032, the total population of the North East Combined Authority area is projected to increase by just over 105,000. However, over the same period, the number of children aged under 16 is projected to decrease by approximately 29,000.

Looking over a longer timeframe, in the 25 years to 2047 across the North East:

  • The total population is projected to increase by approximately 185,000.
  • The number of under‑16s is projected to decrease by almost 11%, equivalent to around 37,000 children.
  • The working‑age population (16 to 64) is projected to increase by approximately 98,000 (almost 8%).
  • The population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by more than 124,000, representing an increase of almost 30%

Local authority–level population projections

Over the 25 years to 2043:

  • The population in each of the seven North East local authority (LA) areas is projected to increase.
  • The largest increase is in County Durham, with an increase of 54,800, which is around 10% of their current total population.
  • North Tyneside is projected to see the largest relative increase, at 13.4%, equivalent to around 28,000 additional residents.
  • Gateshead is projected to experience the smallest relative increase, at 2.5%, or approximately 4,900 people.
  • For the 16–24 age group, only County Durham (2.6%) and Newcastle (7.3%) are projected to see increases; all other local authorities are expected to see a decline in this age group.
  • The largest percentage increase in the aged 65 and over population is projected in Northumberland, with an increase of over 41%, equivalent to around 34,000 people. 
  • The overall composition of population across Local Authorities in in the Combined Authority does not substantially change