HomeReportOpportunity North East: Final Report

Opportunity North East: Final Report

Opportunity North East (ONE) was a three-year, £24 million, Department for Education (DfE) sponsored project. ONE is part of DfE’s commitment to improve education and boost productivity in the North East and Tees Valley areas.

Education and skills Evaluation
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Overview

Main challenges

ONE identified five main challenges that exist across the North East region that need to be addressed to achieve the overarching ambition:

  1. Too few children continue to make good progress from primary to secondary.
  2. More needs to be done to unlock the potential of key secondary schools in the North East.
  3. Some schools struggle to recruit, retain and develop great teachers.
  4. Too few young people find a pathway to a good career.
  5. Too few young people progress to higher education, particularly to the top tier universities.

Our focus

Our focus is on Challenge 4: “too few young people find a pathway to a good career”.

Contextual destination data – ONE VISION schools

Pupils not sustaining a post-Key Stage 4 destination (%)

Historically, a significantly lower proportion of students from across the 15 ONE Vision secondary schools have a sustained destination (in education, employment or training) the year after completing their Key Stage 4 studies (age 16) compared to their peers nationally. The 2022 provisional destination data shows the destinations of a further 1.7% of pupils was unknown compared to 1% nationally.

It should be noted that there is a lag in the data, for example the 2022 data set reports on young people who completed Key Stage 4 studies in 2020. The education of the ONE Vision cohort was impacted across both years of their GCSE studies by the COVID pandemic. Until national destination data is published, the national trend is to some extent unknown.

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Tackling this challenge and making it relevant

The North East LEP worked to ensure better pathways to a good career starting with positive transitions for young people at the end of their Key Stage 4 studies (age 16). To meet Challenge 4, we developed and commissioned a two-year enhanced offer of personalised advice and guidance for up to 30 young people in each ONE Vision school to help them to make the best of their strengths, interests and aspirations. Examples of how this was achieved include:

  • Each student was offered regular and personalised interviews.
  • Progress Careers Level 6 advisers facilitated the interviews and were responsible for collecting data across a range of career-related areas. This included preferred sector, type of job in the sector, post-16 plans and pathways and levels of career-based knowledge. The information was analysed to ensure we provided credible and relevant interventions for the students.
  • Data sharing via the bespoke digital tool provided the capacity to make informed decisions regarding student needs.

The North East LEP worked with each ONE Vision school to understand what strategies would help young people secure employment, apprenticeships or continue their education in a sixth form or further education setting. This included:

  • Co-developing interventions with partner organisations and employers across the region.
  • Regularly sharing detailed information on each student, including student action plans, to career leads.
  • Holdong termly sessions with career leads to discuss progress and challenges.
  • Regular engagement with stakeholders to keep them informed of progress.
  • Disruption due to the Covid pandemic resulted new methods of engagement between pupils and employers / external organisations.

Key project outcomes

Over 2043 interviews

The data collected from over 2,043 interviews between October 2020 (Cycle 1) and March 2022 (Cycle 6) shows that pupils improved their understanding of the pathways into careers and developed greater career-based knowledge.

113% improvement

There was 113% average improvement across the 12 key areas of underpinning careers-based knowledge assessed through the project.

97% of students interesting in working

94% of pupils had decided on a sector they were interested in working in following further intervention in the summer 2022 term this increased to over 97%.

More pupils with a post-16 plan

The number of pupils with a post-16 plan increased from 75% to 98%.

97% of students predicted to be in education, employment or training

57% of students are predicted to have progressed to a Level 3 qualification

Only 1% of students are predicted to be unhappy

Only 1% of students are predicted to be unhappy and plan to leave their current destination.

Final destination data and associated findings are based on a response rate of 37.2% (Oct 2022). 

Risk of becoming NEET

DfE funded a report on students who are NEET (Not in Education,  by the Institute of Education(2014) which concluded that the most significant educational risk factor was low educational attainment at GCSE. Reasons cited for low GCSE attainment included a lack of motivation, poor health (physical and mental) and having Special Educational Needs.

Of the ONE Vision cohort:

  • 47% Were Pupil Premium
  • 19% Were SEND
  • 36% of pupils did not achieve Grade 4 (or equivalent) or higher in 5 GCSEs or BTEC’s

These factors are a further indication that many of the target pupil cohort have an increased risk of becoming NEET.

Predicted economic outcomes

Nationally, young people who become NEET are likely to experience a range of other negative personal outcomes, triggering both personal and wider economic costs - over £77,000 each in direct lifetime costs to public finances and over £144,000 in wider lifetime costs to the economy and wider community.[1]

It can therefore be assumed that across the 15 ONE Vision schools every % point reduction in pupils not in a sustained destination leading to NEET has the potential to save public finances £1.85million and over £3.46million in wider lifetime costs to the economy and wider community.[2]

Telephone interviews carried out during October indicate a reported NEET rate of 3% of the ONE Vision targeted pupils. This compares to the average historic NEET rate for the 15 ONE Vision schools of >8%, with a much greater rate expected within the targeted pupils. At an individual level, the interventions carried out as part of the pilot have the potential to increase by up to £3,400 each learner’s wage between the age of 19 and 24.[3]

  1. ^ The University of York estimated the average individual life-time public finance cost of NEET at £56,300. Using the Bank of England’s inflation calculator to bring this figure to 2022 prices gives an estimated cost of £77,920. The report estimated total resource costs at £104,300 in 2010, which the Bank of England calculates at £144,353. (Estimating the life-time cost of NEET: 16–18 year olds not in education, employment or training, Executive Summary, University of York 2010.)
  2. ^ Based on a school leaving year cohort of 2400 pupils across the 15 ONE Vision schools.
  3. ^ https://www.educationandemployers.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Contemporary-Transitions-30-01-2017.pdf

Finding out about careers

Underpinning careers knowledge

Levels of student knowledge were assessed against 12 key subject areas and this information was ranked against a framework on a scale of 1 (very little knowledge) to 5 (excellent knowledge). There was positive direction of travel which indicates pupils knew better how to access the information needed to identify and secure a good career.

Proportionately, the student cohort was most knowledgeable regarding:

  • Importance of English and maths to their future
  • Further Education options
  • Apprenticeships
  • The importance of gaining wider employability skills
  • How to access careers information
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Supporting students with special educational needs

Pupils identified with special educational needs or disability (SEND) made up approximately 19% of the pilot cohort. At the beginning of the pilot, on average, SEND students displayed lower levels of underpinning knowledge across all areas than the cohort average. 

By Cycle 6 (Easter of Year 11), pupils with SEND had made relatively better progress than the overall cohort and in most aspects measured, displayed careers-related knowledge at or above the cohort average.

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Cycle 1 levels of knowledge, pupil premium compared to average

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Cycle 6 levels of knowledge, pupil premium compared to average

Supporting pupil premium students

The ONE Vision student cohort was made up of over 47% pupil premium students (facing a disadvantage). At the beginning of the pilot, on average, pupil premium students displayed lower levels of underpinning career knowledge across most areas.

By Cycle 6, the pupil premium students had made relatively better progress than the overall cohort and, in most aspects of careers-related knowledge, had closed the knowledge gap. 

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Cycle 1 levels of knowledge, pupil premium compared to average

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Cycle 6 levels of knowledge, pupil premium compared to average

Young people's post-16 plans

Improvements in underpinning career knowledge were supported by students developing, over time, a greater focus on future employment sectors.

Student satisfaction with their current destination (Oct 2022)

As part of the destination analysis, students were asked how happy they were with their current destination:

  • 88% of students were very happy and had absolutely no plan to leave
  • 7% of students were neither happy or unhappy 
  • 1% of students were unhappy and planned to leave their current destination 

Satisfaction by destination

  • Apprenticeship / traineeship:  100% of students progressing to an apprenticeship / traineeship were very happy and had absolutely no plan to leave.
  • Sixth Form: 89% of students progressing to 6th Form were very happy and had absolutely no plan to leave. No student was unhappy with their choice to attend sixth form.
  • FE College:  87% of students progressing to FE were very happy and had absolutely no plan to leave. Only 2% of students were unhappy with their choice to attend FE
  • Direct employment: 86% of students progressing to direct employment were very happy and had absolutely no plan to leave. No student was unhappy with their choice to enter direct employment. 

Satisfaction by gender

  • Female Students: 81% of students were very happy and had absolutely no plan to leave their chosen destination. 1% of students were unhappy with their choice.
  • Male Students:  93% of students were very happy and had absolutely no plan to leave their chosen destination. 1% of students were unhappy with their choice.

Oxford University careers service - preliminary findings from the Litmus tool

Litmus is a tool, facilitated by Oxford University Careers Service, which collects information about students’ frame of mind about their career plans post-school, and about the industry sectors in which they are interested. 
 
To obtain a comparative view, the consolidated 2022 data from schools in the North East was aggregated then compared to the extracted data from ONE cohort students. 
 
The 2022 data was also compared to the 2021 data to better understand the longitudinal impact of the pilot.

  • ONE Vision impact upon careers frame of mind: 2021 careers interventions were positive but the effect a year on (2022) is yet more positive. 
  • ONE Vision impact upon student impression of level of support: 2021 careers interventions were positive (students feel more supported) but the effect a year on (2022) is yet more positive. 
  • ONE Vision impact upon industry knowledge: 2021 careers interventions were positive but the effect a year on (2022) is yet more positive. 

Opportunity North East Challenge 4: business buy-in

NPS organisation scores

Throughout the pilot, the North East LEP initiated a range of evidence-based interventions. Covid-19 restrictions necessitated the need to trial new ways of delivering career events.

Interventions included:

  • Provision of learning resources 
  • Resilience sessions
  • Business breakfasts  
  • Career insight sessions
  • Virtual meetings with key stakeholders and businesses
  • Multiemployer job fairs 
  • Labour market sessions

Interventions were evaluated using the Net Promotor Score (NPS). An NPS below 0 indicates a lot of issues to address; between 0 and 30 is a good; higher than 30 would indicates happy stakeholders; over 70 indicates stakeholders fully support your approach.  

Impact and sustainable support opportunities

Data collected over 2,043 interviews suggests pupils improved understanding of the required pathway into a good career i.e., pupils, overall, understood better where to get information relating to future careers, the employment sectors available to them and the pathways available into their preferred employment sector.

Pilot data suggests that regular contact with a careers adviser, coupled with accurate data recording and subsequent interventions, leads to significant increases in a student’s capacity to make the informed decisions needed to secure a good career pathway, especially for students that have higher risk factors of becoming NEET. 

  • School engagement is key to student progression; data suggests those schools which have been less engaged show higher levels of career uncertainty
  • The importance of insight (credible, robust, standardised data) is key to making interventions relevant to both students and business volunteers
  • Where practical, an evidence-based, data-driven approach to career interventions should be encouraged
  • Where practical, clear aims and objectives should be agreed for all interventions.
  • Greatest impact is achieved from smaller, more focused interventions.
  • Regular career advice improves student career-based underpinning knowledge. This is proportionately greater for pupil premium and SEND students
  • Whilst future job choices vary over time, the overall sector choice remains fairly constant. Understanding preferred sector and exposure to the roles within the sector makes careers advice relevant
  • Post-16 pathways trend towards college - more work needs to be done to ensure students have a full picture of all pathways
  • There is scope to develop a more personalised approach for students e.g. joint school visits to specialist colleges or employment sector experiences
  • Increased student knowledge suggests a link to increased satisfaction with destination choice.

About the project

Overall, 28 schools are involved, 16 in the North East LEP area and 12 in Tees Valley Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) area. The pilot was developed through consultation with school leads. DfE selected the participant schools.

Participant students were selected by schools, up to 30 per school. In most instances, this included pupils identified by the schools as having an increased risk of becoming NEET (Not in Education, Employment or Training). Challenge 4 specifically supports students through years 10 and 11.

For more information, please contact Neil Willis, Regional Lead: Education Challenge.

Read more about the DfE plan Email Neil Willis