Emergent Markets: Societal and demographic changes

HomeEmergent Markets: Societal and demographic changes

Economic Markets : Societal and demographic shifts

Societal trends that are changing customer attitudes and employee perspectives identified through our economic forsighting project

Future trends : Social and demographic changes

The global trends described on this page were all identified as ‘high impact’ trends in our economic market’s foresight project. They are classified as high impact because they are deemed likely to coverage with other trends pushing market growth in a common direction.

Intertwined social and demographic processes will change the market opportunities available to businesses over the next 10-15 years. One of the most significant trends will likely be the further ageing of the population, which has accelerated skills shortages in some industries and prompted technological developments.

Inequality is also likely to remain a feature of UK and global society, which impacts the health and wellbeing of many communities. At the same time the UK continues to receive more immigrants than emigrants, which combined with differing fertility rates is continuing to change the ethnic make-up of the UK population.

Ageing population

An increase in the global population aged 65 years and older will emerge as both a future challenge and opportunity for the economy, at the global, national and local levels. The population in the UK is ageing, due to both an increase in life expectancy and a decrease in total fertility rates. By 2030, one in five people in the UK (21.8%) will be aged 65 or over and 3.2% will be aged 85+. Ageing is a cross-cutting issue with impacts, for example, on pensions, social care, housing and well-being. Extending careers, raising the retirement age and pension reforms are examples of some adjustment measures that could be taken to keep the dependency ratio at a reasonable level. Opportunities from ageing include the emergence of new markets, increased involvement in volunteering and community activism.

Useful further reading

Living longer - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

Health and wellbeing

While the pandemic has thrown the topic of infectious diseases into the limelight, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are still a greater threat over time. According to the World Health Organization, 38M people die from NCDs each year and about 3 in 10 global deaths can be attributed to cardiovascular diseases. In the UK, NCDs account for an estimated 86% of deaths (pre-pandemic). In the UK, the biggest risk factors are poor diet, smoking, obesity and high blood pressure. The health and wellness market, which encompasses fitness, nutrition, cosmetics and more has been growing steadily as awareness around wellbeing grows. Mental health will also be an important focus for health and wellbeing going forward. As the market becomes more competitive, future wellness offerings may focus on personalisation and digital solutions.

Inequality

By 2030, about two-thirds of global wealth will be owned by the richest 1%. The UK has a high level of income inequality compared to other developed countries and wealth is also unevenly spread across the UK. Income inequality is associated with reduced life expectancy, increased infant mortality, obesity, and higher levels of crime. The Covid-19 outbreak and resulting recession could further widen economic inequalities in the long-term.

Migration and diversity

Migration to the UK has been greater than emigration since 1994 and has exceeded emigration by more than 100,000 in every year since 1998. In the future, climate change could drive more migrants to the UK and the impacts of EU-exit on immigration have yet to play out. This trend also covers reverse migration, which is the migration of working age people into more suburban locations or rural areas with access to core labour markets in large cities. Reverse migration has been accelerated by the pandemic.

There will be a growing focus on diversity and inclusion, with companies being held accountable for their commitments to hire diverse talent and provide more opportunities for diverse employees. They will also focus on products and services that promote diversity, equity, and inclusion.